This INCITE project focuses on two science questions that can be answered with the ACME v1
model and DOE capability computing resources:
1. Water Cycle: How will more realistic portrayals of features important to the water cycle
(resolution, clouds, aerosols, snowpack, river routing, land use) affect river flow and associated
freshwater supplies at the watershed scale?
2. Cryosphere Systems: Could a dynamical instability in the Antarctic Ice Sheet be triggered
within the next 40 years?
For the water cycle question, the team hypothesizes that changes in river flow over the last 40
years have been dominated primarily by land management, water management and climate
change associated with aerosol forcing, but that during the next 40 years, increasing
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will produce changes to river flow with signatures
that dominate those other forcing agents. The goal is to simulate the changes in the
hydrological cycle with a specific focus on precipitation and surface water in orographically
complex regions such as the western United States and the headwaters of the Amazon.
For the cyrosphere, the objective is to examine the near-term risk of initiating the dynamic instability
and onset of the collapse of the Antarctic Ice Sheet due to rapid melting by warming waters
adjacent to the ice sheet grounding lines. The experiment would be the first fully coupled global
simulation to include dynamic ice shelf-ocean interactions for addressing the potential instability
associated with grounding line dynamics in marine ice sheets around Antarctica.
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